Let It Be

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is in the midst of a set of rapidly unfolding events that are both inspiring and unsettling. After decades of corrupt and repressive rule by most of the dictators and monarchs of the region, the populations are standing up and calling for change.

They want what everyone wants. That is, they want work. They want to be able to afford to provide their families with a decent standard of living rather than to be excluded from the vast wealth that is accumulated and hoarded by the autocrats of virtually every country in the region. They want the ability to express themselves without the fear of prison, torture, or disappearance. They want a role in the decisions that are made that affect their lives. They want ownership of their own countries, rather than their long experience of subjugation to the selfish motives of autocrats and external powers. They want hope that their children will have an even better life than they do - that things are going to get better. Most of all, they want to be afforded the dignity that they so deserve and that they so feel has been disallowed for so long.

At least, that is how I read it as an outsider who shares in their hopefullness as a fellow human being and as one who has been inspired by so many of the young and bright men and women who live here in Sharjah, UAE and who are from all around the region.

This is at once NOT America's moment and the moment that America has hoped for. To explain, this is not for Americans or by Americans. It is a set of social movements that are internal to the MENA states. That is as it should be, if they stand a chance of truly achieving the outcome that they hope for (something that is far from certain). One of the problems that the US has faced in this region and beyond is its tendency to think that it can direct events in the way that it wants. It not only has an extraordinarily poor record of doing so, but this also has contributed significantly to the situation that many of these countries find themselves in today. Part of the challenge for the US now is to let go. It must stop trying to determine who rules within the states of the Middle East. It is only by doing so that it can hope over the long term to reconstruct its relationships with this region in a manner that actually serves its and their interests.

On the other hand, America and particularly President Obama do have a possible role to play. The ideas of freedom and opportunity that the US was founded upon are those that are being sought by the people of the Middle East. The power of the United States and the inspiring potential that President Obama had in the wake of his historic election and his speech in Cairo combine with these ideas to provide a unique platform from which America can express its support for these movements. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has flailed about in its various responses to the events of the past couple of months. It has come across as tone deaf, lacking in vision, and distinctly un-courageous. Dropping bombs on Libya doesn't compensate for this.

It was slow to respond to the will of the Egyptian people to rid themselves of the corrupt tyrant that the US had propped up for decades due to his malleability on the Israel issue. It has been less than assertive in criticizing the sectarian massacres by its 'allies' (Saudi Arabia and Bahrain) against unarmed Shia protesters. It has been less than impressive in its opposition to the massacres by the Yemeni government against innocent protesters as well. Nevertheless, it has entered as a participant into a civil war in Libya. As I will comment on further in another blog, this is not likely to end well.

What a missed opportunity to be on the right side of history at a moment when the spokesperson could be such an inspiration. But he is paralyzed by trying to figure out, what if Islamist groups come to power if they actually do get democracy? What will Israel think? What will the Saudis think? What will happen to oil prices? What is Iran's role in all of this? Of course, these are all strategically reasonable questions to ask. The problem is that the analysis of these questions seems always to be done with an eye toward the very short-term. While it is far too soon to see which of these states will emerge from these events as more free, prosperous, and perhaps democratic, such an outcome would go a long way toward providing answers to these questions that are conducive to US interests - even if there is a bumpy ride to get there.

The bottom line is that the US must find a delicate balance between keeping its fingers out of the actual internal processes that are going on but using its 'bully pulpit' to stand up for those who seek dignity and freedom and against those who would brutally deny it. Such an approach takes patience, courage, and a little bit of faith to be sure. I am convinced however, that it is the only way that the US can be a help rather than a hindrence and can achieve what it has never been able to - that is in building a positive and mutually respectful set of relationships with the societies of the MENA region that are conducive to America's strategic interests over the long term.

There is still time to get this right. In the end, that will be what is remembered, even if it took the US a bit too long to catch on. I do see signs that the comments coming out from the Obama administration point in that direction. The delicate balance and consistency though, will be the key.